This is the year-end edition of Freedom Fast Lane. In this episode, Ryan Daniel Moran goes out on a limb and makes bold predictions for 2016, as well as recaps which of his psychic predictions came true in 2015 and which ones he got completely wrong.
Physical Products, Entrepreneurship, & Amazon
In 2014, Ryan boldly predicted that there would be a major market consolidation on Amazon.com and that the ‘little guys’ would get squeezed out by September 2015. This certainly happened, but not nearly as severely as predicted. The people who got in early own a lot of the market, but there is still plenty of opportunity. Zonblast is working better than ever because less people are using them.
The prediction for 2016 is that the second part of the consolidation will happen with well-funded outside companies, such as funds, venture capitalists, and major companies, moving into Amazon.
The process for launching a product will become more sophisticated, and you will see a lot less of the big blast services, and you will see a lot more targeted enterprise-level launch processes.
In 2015, there was a race to the bottom when it came to physical products on Amazon, but the good news is that there will be an opposite consolidation toward the higher priced products. Expensive products will become the new thing on Amazon.
One of the 2015 predictions was that inventions and unique products would hit Amazon. This didn’t happen, and Amazon has stuck to its core competency, which are private labels. Another prediction was that physical products owners would primarily focus on getting off Amazon and look for new channels in order to diversify. This happened, but people weren’t successful at it. The reason for this was that email marketing wasn’t heavily used for physical products owners.
Successful business owners will mature in 2016, where they get systems in place, follow-up with customers, have other channels in place, and get into retail.
App and Information Products
The 2015 prediction was that there would be an app business boom and that people would move away from physical products and go digital with information products. The app component ‘sort of happened’ on an enterprise level. There was a slight boom in information products arena, but not to the extent that was predicted.
Brain Hacking for Productivity, Nootropics, & Intentional Communities
The prediction was that brain hacking and nootropics would hit mass appeal and that there might be some FDA regulations on those. The brain hacking and body hacking for productivity was correct. However, nootropics didn’t uplevel, and seems to have regressed. Ryan also predicted that intentional communities would be huge in 2015. This prediction was spot on. People are realizing that being isolated behind a computer screen isn’t the way to go, as is evident with the tiny house movement and co-working spaces now being mainstream.
Ryan didn’t see Donald Trump coming, but did predict that the Republican nomination process would be a wide-open west and that there would be a scrambling for attention. When it comes time to vote, Ryan believes he will be vindicated when an anti-establishment candidate will be nominated who will be either Bush or Rubio. He is convinced that Marco Rubio will be the nominee for the Republican Party in 2016, and will be up against Hillary Clinton, but wouldn’t be shocked if it’s Sanders. The prediction is that the Democrats will win in 2016 and there will be a one-term President.
The prediction was that negative campaigns would lessen in 2015, which has absolutely happened. The era of mudslinging in politics will lessen in 2016.
The prediction for the economy in 2015 was that it would be flat was correct.
Ryan predicted that the World Series would be the Angels versus the Dodgers, with the Angels beating the Dodgers. It ended up being the Mets verses the Royals. The Indians were also not the wild card finisher as predicted and did not make the playoffs.
Physical Products and Amazon
Amazon is the new Walmart, and to reiterate the 2015 prediction, Ryan again predicts that investment funds and venture capitalists will finally move into Amazon. Jet.com will become a strong number two in terms on digital e-commerce.
The biggest online opportunity for new and existing entrepreneurs is working with people who already have audiences online such as Instagram stars who already have hundreds of thousands of followers and bloggers who are aren’t monetizing. If this doesn’t become a factor, then people either don’t deserve to be rich or have overlooked the opportunity.
This will be the year that Amazon finally gets their ‘stuff’ together and has a major correction by cracking down and kicking out scammers and black-hatters.
The world of internet entrepreneurship will see a major maturation and return to the process of inventing new products, getting a core group of followers, and partnering with people who already have audiences.
It will be cool to bring investment dollars to the internet again. The idea of buying internet businesses and Amazon business will be big in 2016, just like it was in 2009 when websites were sold. A lot of outside investor money will be poured into digital businesses.
3D Printing and Virtual Reality
It’s surprising that Xbox and PlayStation don’t have more virtual reality built in to their existing game systems. The predictions are that virtual reality and 3D printing will become bigger and, by the end of 2016, early adopters will have 3D printers.
Election Year Politics
Rubio will win the GOP nomination and chooses Carly Fiorina as his running mate. Ryan is nervous to choose Hillary Clinton, but picks her, keeping in mind that Bernie could sneak in. Ryan bets that Hillary gets in and chooses Cory Booker as her Vice Presidential partner. The reason Hillary will win is not because people rally behind her but because of the overall interest in being anti-establishment. Ryan doesn’t believe that Trump will run third party, but sees the Libertarians picking up steam and getting 5-10% of the vote. Hillary Clinton will be a one-term president. The anti-establishment movement in 2016 will get stronger toward the empowerment of individuals.
There will be a major slow-down in 2016, and likely there is another recession but not a global meltdown. The prediction is that the Dow will be 15,000 by the end of the year, which is a pullback of around 20 percent.
East: Yankees Central: White Sox West: Astros Wildcard: Red Sox vs. the Tigers or Twins.
East: Nationals Central: Cubs West: Dodgers Wildcard: Mets vs. Cardinals
Astros lose to the Cubs